My predictions for 2008 were very hit and miss (mainly miss), here’s a quick re-cap:

  • Cubic Telecom will have a £100m exit

      * Not yet. 2008 was an amazing year for Pat and the team with deals happening at breakneck pace.

  • European Founders, Howzat Media, TAG or Advent will do a deal with a web or mobile start-up here

      * Again not yet. I still think this will happen

  • More foreign VCs will invest in Irish web start-ups than Irish VCs

      * Well they both hover around zero. With current climate, we could be waiting a long time for this.

  • One of the current batch of Irish Web 2.0 start-ups will go global in a big way

      * PollDaddy!

  • EI’s €170m VC fund will continue to provide minimal benefits to Irish web start-ups

      * I got that one 1000% correct

  • Eircom’s small fund will result in two major web start-up successes

      * Sadly not yet but the signs are still good

  • Someone will launch a full Y Combinator/Seedcamp here

      * Sadly no. And with Government pissing away another €500m to foreign VCs this time, could they not take a €5m flutter with some smart entrepreneurs (no not VCs!) co-managing this?

  • Minister John McGuinness will be given responsibility for re-structuring all state bodies concerned with business

      * Again no. Will Government have the balls to shake everything up in 2009? €500m to foreign VCs says no.

  • EI will absorb Údarás na Gaeltachta

      * No.

  • EI will launch a self-contained web unit with its own budget, minimal red-tape, firewall access to Facebook and based in the Cork Gaeltacht or Kilkenny

      * No, big opportunity missed. The geo-centric model of EI needs to change to centres of expertise.

  • Damien Mulley will launch his own start-up

      * Mulley Communications :-)

  • Six Apart will launch a free version of Typepad

      * No. Give it time tho.

  • Six Apart or Automattic will launch a full blown social network built on their blogging platforms

      * No. I'm very surprised how long this is taking.

  • Facebook Sign-to-Noise will continue to plummet as more and more people join and repeat usage plateaus (How many FB apps did I have to install this week just to read happy new year messages?)

      * SNR did plummet but usage didn't. I started to find FB more useful in the latter part of 2008 as all the vampire crap subsided.

  • There will be a management bloodbath at a high level in the mobile operators as they see ARPU drop on traditional services and continue to sit idly-by, unable to make sense of the mobile internet

      * No. Bit by bit it looks like the mobile telcos are getting the hang of the internet. 

  • Google’s Mobile strategy will continue to peek out here and there and continue scare the bejesus out of the incumbents

      * The strategy seems to be working well. The ones who are scared are not the telcos but Nokia and the non-Android handset makers. It looks like the mobile telcos are actually embracing Android.

  • The first Google Android phone will be launched by HTC and won’t be fantastic

      * I got this one right. I have a G1. The software is fantastic, the hardware mediocre. Review coming soon on LouderVoice.

  • Amazon will merge with eBay

      * No. They still should

  • Amazon will seriously impact Apple iTunes

      * I believe they are making a bigger and bigger dent here. Android will accelerate this.

  • Google will buy 3 (ok ok that’s wishlist too)

      * No, not even close.

  • RyanAir will buy 3 :-)

      * Ditto.

  • Ye know I cannot come up with one decent prediction about Microsoft. More of the same maybe?

      * Live Mesh impresses the socks off me.

  • The BBC will brand the OLPC XO as the BBC Micro Model D and launch a major combined TV and internet education program around it

      * A little too bluesky for the BBC. Netbooks seem to have taken all the buzz here.

  • Google will buy Bebo

      * Well they were bought but not by Google.

  • One of the video 2.0 companies will be massive (Qik, Seesmic, Kyte, Ustream etc)

      * Whilst not massive, both Qik and Ustream seem to be doing very well.

  • A dedicated generic Irish Social Network will be launched

      * Both IGOpeople and Locle went live so I got that right!

  • Bandon and Old Chapel will get 12 Mbs broadband (that’s on the fantasy list)

      * We got 3 Mbs. Better than a poke in the eye I guess

  • Old Chapel residents will get flat-rate unencumbered 3.5G on our phones (ditto)

      * Well I got 1GB for €8 from Voda last month so we're heading in the right direction

  • 2008 will provide tougher challenges but greater rewards to Irish entrepreneurs than 2007

      * Yes, absolutely.

2009 predictions coming next